FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

7 August 2026

New analysis by 350.org shows that elevated oil prices have already imposed an estimated $45m (approx. $100m FJD) on Fiji since the start of the Iran war and will cost up to over $100m (approx. $220m FJD)  in total by the end of the year in case of continued escalation. Even in case of a swift normalization of the Strait of Hormuz and the region – recent weeks have seen renewed escalation and recorded concomitant rising prices – higher oil prices would cost the Fijian people and businesses over $65m ($144m FJD) by the end of the year.

350.org’s analysis is based on oil and gas pricing scenarios of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, Fijian consumption data and observed price averages since the start of the Iran war and Hormuz crisis.

350.org‘s estimates do not yet account for wider knock-on effects, including rising fertiliser and food costs, lower economic output and employment, or rising inflation driven by fossil fuel price volatility. As a result, the true economic damage is likely to be significantly greater than the direct losses from higher oil and gas prices alone.

This analysis lands as five of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies amassed a cumulative $48 billion in profits this quarter’s earnings season (TotalEnergies – $6 billion; Shell – $9.8 billion; Chevron – $12.1 billion; ExxonMobil – 14.5; BP – $5.7 billion), with most of them posting some of their highest profits since 2022.

Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Pacific and Caribbean Program Lead says,

“It is shocking to see these obscene profit margins in global oil and gas companies, while people in Fiji are having to dig deeper into their pockets to pay for a crisis not of their making. It has never been clearer that we need to break free of our reliance on imported fuel and invest in our own renewable energy independence. 

Across the Pacific, our people are being choked by  climate disasters and rising costs of living. The Just Transition to renewable energy needs to happen swiftly, and I think the people that are profiting off of our struggle, the world’s highest earners and highest polluters, should be required to pay for their fair share of it.”

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NOTES TO THE EDITOR

• 350.org’s analysis is based on oil and gas pricing scenarios of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook as well as pricing outlook of Goldman Sachs and consumption data of Fiji as well as reduced demand due to higher prices and rationing measures.
• The analysis takes a deliberately conservative approach in estimating total losses due to higher prices.
  • It does not include wider knock-on effects such as higher food and fertiliser costs, broader inflation, or reduced economic output.
  • It compares rising prices against the price level in the week before the Iran war, e.g. Brent crude at USD 72 per barrel, a price that was already above levels seen in the preceding weeks and months of 2026 and likely already reflected market fears of disruption in the Middle East. This means the true economic impact is plausibly even higher.
  • Reduced demand resulting from higher prices and rationing is already accounted for.
• Figures may vary slightly due to rounding, including converting units such as cubic meters into energy (EJ and MWh).

FIJI’S BASELINE SCENARIO

FIJI’S ADVERSE SCENARIO

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Drue Slatter

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